Identifying Nigeria’s Business Cycle Chronology

Abstract

This study provides an accurate chronology of the reference dates ofthe
turning point in Nigeria’s business cycle, employing the quarterly
Harding and Pagan (2002) procedures of Bry—Boschan
Quarterly(BBQ) algorithm for the period 2010Q1—2020Q4.The
empirical application identifies three complete cycles in the Nigeria’s
reference cycle from 2010 to 2020.The three pronounced recessions by
the National Bureau of Statistics in the period from 2010 to 2020, namely
the recessions of 2011, 2016 and 2020 are equally identified. Reference
dates established for the peaks includes 2011Q1, 2015Q4 and 2019Q4,
and for the troughs 2011Q3, 2017Q1 and 2020Q2. These are the dates
from the three reference cycle phases. The dates complement the
pronouncements by the National Bureau of Statistics and can be used by
both the academics and policy-makers for reference of the Nigeria’s
economic cycle.